مدل‌سازی مطلوبیت زیستگاه و تأثیر تغییرات اقلیمی بر توزیع سارگپه پابلند (Buteo rufinus)

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 گروه محیط زیست، دانشکده منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه زابل، زابل، ایران.

2 دانشکده حکمرانی، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران.

10.22091/ethc.2026.16086.1082

چکیده

هدف: این پژوهش با هدف مدل‌سازی مطلوبیت زیستگاه سارگپه پابلند (Buteo rufinus) در زیستگاه‌های بیابانی ایران، شناسایی عوامل محیطی مؤثر بر پراکنش آن و پیش‌بینی تغییرات زیستگاه‌های مطلوب تحت سناریوهای تغییر اقلیم تا سال 2100 انجام شد.
مواد و روش‌ها: برای مدل‌سازی مطلوبیت زیستگاه، از 121 نقطه حضور گونه، 19 متغیر محیطی، چهار متغیر توپوگرافی و پنج متغیر انسانی استفاده شد. مدل‌سازی با الگوریتم مکسنت و بسته آماری kuenm انجام گرفت و عملکرد مدل با شاخص‌های AUC و TSS ارزیابی شد. همچنین، تغییرات زیستگاه مطلوب با استفاده از داده‌های اقلیمی مدل گردش عمومیESM-CMCC  تحت سناریوی بدبینانهSSP5-8.5  برای سال 2100 پیش‌بینی و میزان همپوشانی زیستگاه مطلوب با شبکه مناطق حفاظت‌شده کشور بررسی شد.
 نتایج: مدل مطلوبیت زیستگاه از عملکرد مناسبی برخوردار بود (AUC=0.89; TSS= 0.793). مهم‌ترین متغیرهای مؤثر بر مطلوبیت زیستگاه شامل شاخص ردپای انسانی (9/35 درصد)، ارتفاع (3/15 درصد) و فاصله از زمین‌های کشاورزی (1/12 درصد) بودند. نتایج پیش‌بینی نشان داد که مساحت زیستگاه مطلوب از حدود 999 هزار کیلومترمربع در شرایط کنونی به 111 هزار کیلومترمربع در سال 2100 کاهش می‌یابد. همچنین، همپوشانی زیستگاه مطلوب با مناطق حفاظت‌شده از 346 هزار به 38 هزار کیلومترمربع کاهش خواهد یافت.
نتیجه‌گیری: مطلوبیت زیستگاه سارگپه پابلند در ایران به‌شدت تحت تأثیر فشارهای انسانی و تغییرات اقلیمی قرار دارد. کاهش چشمگیر زیستگاه‌های مطلوب و همپوشانی آن‌ها با مناطق حفاظت‌شده، ضرورت بازنگری در راهبردهای حفاظتی و اتخاذ رویکردهای زیست‌بوم‌محور را برجسته می‌کند. بر این اساس، تمرکز برنامه‌های حفاظتی بر مناطق تحت فشار فعالیت‌های انسانی، به‌ویژه نواحی کشاورزی، پیشنهاد می‌شود.

کلیدواژه‌ها

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