استفاده از سناریوهای اقلیمی متفاوت جهت پیش‌بینی اثرات تغییر اقلیم بر پراکنش ماهی شیربت (Arabibarbus grypus, Heckel, 1843)

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 گروه تنوع زیستی و مدیریت اکوسیستم‌ها، پژوهشکده علوم محیطی، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی، تهران، ایران.

2 گروه تنوع زیستی و مدیریت اکوسیستم‌ها، پژوهشکده علوم محیطی، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی، تهران. ایران.

3 گروه تنوع زیستی و مدیریت اکوسیستم‌ها، پژوهشکده علوم محیطی، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی، تهران.

10.22091/ethc.2024.11056.1032

چکیده

هدف: تغییر اقلیم به‌عنوان یکی از مهم‌ترین تهدیدات پیش‌ رو، دارای اثرات قابل‌توجهی روی تنوع زیستی و اکوسیستم‌های طبیعی است. در مطالعه حاضر، با استفاده از مدل‌سازی توزیع گونه‌ای (SDM)، اثرات تغییر اقلیم  بر پراکنش ماهی شیربت (Arabibarbus grypus, Heckel, 1843) مورد بررسی قرار گرفت.
مواد و روش‌ها: در این مطالعه از یک مدل تلفیقی توسط بسته Biomod2 با شش الگوریتم مختلف برای زمان حال و همچنین تحت دو سری زمانی 2070 و2090 با دو مدل خوش‌بینانه (SSP 126) و بدبینانه (SSP 585) برای زمان آینده انجام گرفت. همچنین برای ساخت مدل، از هشت متغیر اقلیمی، توپوگرافی و انسانی استفاده شد.
نتایج: عملکرد پیش‌بینی مدل بر اساس سه پارامتر AUC، TSS و KAPPA از محدوده خیلی خوب تا عالی 77/0≤  بود. همچنین  مهم‌ترین پارامترهای تأثیرگذار بر پراکنش گونه شیربت پارامترهای کمینه دمای سردترین ماه سال (Bio 6)، مجموع بارندگی سالانه (Bio 12) و ردپای انسانی بودند. همچنین دامنه پراکنش گونه مورد مطالعه در هر دو سناریوی خوش‌بینانه و بدبینانه برای سال‌های 2070 و 2090 میلادی، با کاهش قابل‌توجهی مواجه خواهد شد.
نتیجه‌گیری: با توجه به مطالعه حاضر و مطالعات قبلی، اثرات تغییر اقلیم صورت گرفته روی ماهیان، به‌وضوح نشان داده است که گونه‌ها نسبت به تغییرات اقلیمی دارای پاسخ‌های متفاوتی از جانب خود هستند که این پاسخ‌ها، ارائه راهکارها و استراتژی‌های مدیریتی متناسب و خاص را برای هر گونه می‌طلبد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

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